Climate Red - News and Views on Climate Change Issues.

By Dennis T. Avery
web posted July 30, 2007

A team of water experts says the pattern of droughts and floods in South Africa shows our global warming was triggered by the variability of the sun's irradiance rather than by human-emitted CO2. They say variations in South African rainfall patterns are keyed to periodic reversals of the sun's magnetic field—and to the constantly changing distance between the sun and the earth as both move through space.


In South Africa, alternate 11-year sunspot cycles produce opposite rainfall results. One complete "double sun cycle" occurs every 20.8 years: the "first" cycle brings a big flood, followed by a small drought; the next brings a big drought, followed by a small flood.

Lead author Will Alexander used the double sunspot cycle to publicly predict the end of major South African droughts in both 1995 and 2006. He notes that South African droughts have often been broken at 11-year intervals by severe floods associated with sunspot maxima—as in 1822, 1841, 1863, 1874 and 1885. The research summary appears in the June 2007 issue of the Journal of the South African Institution of Civil Engineering.

The South Africans' conclusion is reinforced by Dr. Robert Baker of Australia, who told a recent meeting of the International Geographical Union that he has found the same 21-year cycle in Australian drought and rainfall. Baker says "the sun is like a musical instrument, vibrating in complex patterns," with all of the planets moving in similar relationships.

H. N. Bhalme and D. A. Mooley published similar conclusions about India's floods and droughts in the Journal of Applied Meteorology, September, 1981, based on an Indian flood index compiled from 1891 to 1979. They reported that "a highly significant 22-year cycle in the flood area index was nearly in phase with the 22-year double sunspot cycle." Bhalme and Mooley also noted that the western U.S. has a similar relationship with the double sunspot cycle and severe flooding.

Clearly, what these water experts are all describing is a global climate connection with the sun.

The number of sunspots on the sun, and their intensity, varies in a cycle averaging 11 years. The distance between the sun and the earth keeps changing slightly and predictably because 1) they move on slightly varying paths through space; and 2) both bodies accelerate and decelerate constantly depending on the combined gravitational forces of the other big planets.

These factors apparently produce the moderate 1,500-year climate cycle on earth, which was discovered in the Greenland ice cores in 1980s and has since also been found globally in seabed and lake sediments, fossil pollen, tree rings and peat bogs.

Earth's recent global warming occurred too early—before 1940—to be blamed on human CO2 emissions. The net global warming since 1940 is only 0.2 degrees C, with none at all since 1998. There's little correlation between the earth's recent temperatures and CO2 levels, but a strong correlation between the sunspot index and subsequent changes in our sea-surface temperatures.

The 1,500-year climate cycle shifts temperatures about 2 degrees C above and then 2 degrees C below the long-term average at the latitude of Washington and Paris, with greater temperature changes near the poles. Temperatures change little near the equator, but rainfall patterns can change greatly; for example, 5,000 years ago the Sahara was wet enough for grazing and hunting, while Kenya was very dry.

The UN climate change panel has declared the solar variations "too small" to produce the climate warming of the past 30 years. However, a recent Danish experiment showed that the solar variations may be amplified fourfold because they create significant changes in the earth's cloud cover. More clouds cool the earth by deflecting more of the sun's heat back into outer space.

The evidence for a sun/climate connection keeps pouring in, while all we hear from the Kyoto crowd is "The computer models agree with each other."

Welcome to 2070 - it's not a pretty sight

25.07.2007
By DOMINIC FEAIN

THE Northern Rivers landscape will be unrecognisable in 2070 if the extreme climate change predictions outlined in a new CSIRO report come true, according to a local ecologist.

There will be no beaches as we know them now and no rainforests ... existing wetlands will be devastated and substantial areas of residential land will have to be abandoned, Mark Graham, from Wetland Care Australia, warned.

In fact, the whole agricultural industry will have to be rethought  sugar cane, tea trees, macadamias and coffee will struggle to survive in a region with drastically reduced rainfall and soaring temperatures  not to mention rising coastal salinity.



And (this report) doesnt consider other factors like the increasing global use of fossil fuels and deforestation  were doing everything wrong.

The report, released yesterday by the NSW Governments Department of Environment and Climate Change, predicts possible temperature increases on the Northern Rivers of up to 6.4 degrees Celsius, and potential rainfall reductions of 40 per cent by 2070  effectively giving our region the climate of Cairns or Port Moresby  but without the rain. Byron Bays rainfall would become similar to that of Casino.

The reduction in rainfall will be accompanied by an increase in extreme rainfall events, resulting in more flash flooding and erosion.

Coastal residents can expect to be hit hard by extreme winds and storm surges which, in conjunction with rising sea levels, could mean theyre forced out of their homes if they live too close to the beach.

The report indicates it will be difficult to predict which areas will be worst affected, stating that the actual magnitude of beach erosion will vary significantly from one location to another.

The report also suggests architects and planners need to consider climate change so that buildings will be able to withstand the increased thermal and structural pressures of the 21st Century.

Our personal health is also expected to be affected  warmer winters are expected to reduce the incidence of cold-related illnesses, though the risk of heat-related illnesses will increase.

Water quality is expected to fall dramatically due to lower stream flows and higher temperatures, creating a more favourable environment for algal blooms. Rising sea levels and increased salt-water infiltration will also exacerbate groundwater salinity levels. This will particularly affect irrigated agriculture, including dairying and horticulture.

The predicted higher temperatures will also affect farm productivity. Increased heat stress on dairy cattle will reduce milk production and the reduced winter chilling of some fruit trees will result in lower yields and crop quality.

On a more positive note, the rising carbon dioxide level in the atmosphere is likely to increase plant growth, though farmers will need to plan now for the climatic changes.

The farmers of NSW have developed useful adaptation skills that stand them in good stead, the report noted.

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